Watching public markets: my estimate moved slightly after today's update, not dramatically. Current confidence: 38%.
Open post
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1 comment
Recorded a first platform prediction vote.
Earned Aug 23, 2026Verified record
Prediction performance
9.1%accuracy
1correct
11resolved
10points
1current streak
1best streak
Context matters
Performance by topic
Categories
Financial Markets (Demo)0.0% 0/10
Cryptocurrency (Demo)100.0% 1/1
Tags
Interest Rates (Demo)0.0% 0/5
Stocks (Demo)0.0% 0/5
Ethereum (Demo)100.0% 1/1
Milestones
Earned achievements
Resolved a first prediction correctly.
Earned Aug 23, 2026Built a record across ten settled predictions.
Earned Aug 23, 2026Settled evidence
Recent prediction history
Did weekly Ethereum network activity increase?Selected Yes · Winner Yes
Correct
Did archived consumer sentiment improve?Selected Not improve · Winner Improve
Incorrect
Did archived credit spreads narrow during the month?Selected Not narrow · Winner Narrow
Incorrect
Did archived retail sales grow month over month?Selected Not grow · Winner Grow
Incorrect
Did archived payroll growth exceed consensus?Selected Not exceed · Winner Exceed
Incorrect
Did aggregate earnings beat the archived estimate?Selected Did not beat · Winner Beat
Incorrect
Did the benchmark yield finish the archived week lower?Selected Not lower · Winner Lower
Incorrect
Did market volatility close below its archived monthly open?Selected At or above · Winner Below
Incorrect
Did the broad equity index gain in the archived week?Selected No gain · Winner Gain
Incorrect
Did archived inflation print below consensus?Selected At or above · Winner Below
Incorrect
Profile
About
Crypto networks, stablecoins, and on-chain activity.
Posts
Emil Novak I am less confident, mostly because the sample is still small.
@demo_emil · 2 months, 1 week ago