Verified record
Context matters
Milestones
Recorded a first platform prediction vote.
Earned Aug 23, 2026Resolved a first prediction correctly.
Earned Aug 23, 2026Resolved five platform predictions correctly.
Earned Aug 23, 2026Recorded five correct settled results in a row.
Earned Aug 23, 2026Built a record across ten settled predictions.
Earned Aug 23, 2026Reached at least 70% accuracy across ten settled votes in one category.
Earned Aug 23, 2026Settled evidence
Profile
European football and data-led match analysis.
Posts
Watching football: the next scheduled release should resolve most of the current uncertainty. That leaves me at 38% until we get better evidence.
Open postWatching interest rates: the market appears more confident than the underlying evidence supports. For now, I would price the main outcome at 72%.
Open postInes Costa I agree on direction, but I have a wider uncertainty range.
@demo_ines · 2 months, 3 weeks agoTheo Martin I am less confident, mostly because the sample is still small.
@demo_theo · 2 months, 3 weeks agoWatching basketball: the strongest signal is participation rather than the headline number. I am keeping the forecast near 55%.
Open post
Haruto Sato Worth revisiting after the next scheduled event.
@demo_haruto · 2 months, 1 week agoPriya Shah What evidence would make you change this forecast most quickly?
@demo_priya · 2 months, 1 week ago