Forecast

Verified record

Prediction performance

15.4%accuracy
2correct
13resolved
20points
0current streak
2best streak

Context matters

Performance by topic

Categories

Financial Markets (Demo)0.0% 0/10
Climate & Science (Demo)0.0% 0/1
Football (Demo)100.0% 1/1
World Events (Demo)100.0% 1/1

Tags

Interest Rates (Demo)0.0% 0/5
Stocks (Demo)0.0% 0/5
Climate Tech (Demo)0.0% 0/1
Elections (Demo)100.0% 1/1
Premier League (Demo)100.0% 1/1

Milestones

Earned achievements

First Vote

Recorded a first platform prediction vote.

Earned Aug 23, 2026
First Correct Prediction

Resolved a first prediction correctly.

Earned Aug 23, 2026
Ten Resolved Predictions

Built a record across ten settled predictions.

Earned Aug 23, 2026

Settled evidence

Recent prediction history

Did the latest month set a new temperature record?Selected No · Winner Yes Incorrect Did the featured football match have at least three goals?Selected Yes · Winner Yes Correct Did the polling leader change after the televised debate?Selected Leader changed · Winner Leader changed Correct Did archived consumer sentiment improve?Selected Not improve · Winner Improve Incorrect Did archived credit spreads narrow during the month?Selected Not narrow · Winner Narrow Incorrect Did archived retail sales grow month over month?Selected Not grow · Winner Grow Incorrect Did archived payroll growth exceed consensus?Selected Not exceed · Winner Exceed Incorrect Did aggregate earnings beat the archived estimate?Selected Did not beat · Winner Beat Incorrect Did the benchmark yield finish the archived week lower?Selected Not lower · Winner Lower Incorrect Did market volatility close below its archived monthly open?Selected At or above · Winner Below Incorrect

Profile

About

Media analyst following box office and subscriber growth.

Posts

Recent posts

Clara Jensen @demo_clara

Watching spaceflight: pricing and fundamentals are pointing in different directions for now. My working probability is 72%.

Open post

Ella Thompson Worth revisiting after the next scheduled event.

@demo_ella · 1 month, 3 weeks ago

Sam Okafor What evidence would make you change this forecast most quickly?

@demo_sam · 1 month, 3 weeks ago
Clara Jensen @demo_clara

Watching clean energy: recent momentum is real, although the base rate still deserves respect. I am keeping the forecast near 55%.

Open post