Verified record
Context matters
Milestones
Recorded a first platform prediction vote.
Earned Aug 23, 2026Resolved a first prediction correctly.
Earned Aug 23, 2026Resolved five platform predictions correctly.
Earned Aug 23, 2026Recorded five correct settled results in a row.
Earned Aug 23, 2026Built a record across ten settled predictions.
Earned Aug 23, 2026Reached at least 70% accuracy across ten settled votes in one category.
Earned Aug 23, 2026Settled evidence
Profile
Public markets, earnings, and the stories prices imply.
Posts
Watching election polling: small changes in assumptions produce meaningfully different probabilities. I am keeping the forecast near 72%.
Open postWatching football: the next scheduled release should resolve most of the current uncertainty. For now, I would price the main outcome at 38%.
Open postLuca Romano Worth revisiting after the next scheduled event.
@demo_luca · 2 months, 2 weeks agoNia Johnson What evidence would make you change this forecast most quickly?
@demo_nia · 2 months, 2 weeks agoWatching chip demand: the range of plausible outcomes remains wider than most commentary suggests. My working probability is 38%.
Open postTheo Martin Worth revisiting after the next scheduled event.
@demo_theo · 2 months, 3 weeks agoEmil Novak What evidence would make you change this forecast most quickly?
@demo_emil · 2 months, 3 weeks agoWatching AI adoption: one positive result would help, but it would not establish a durable trend. My working probability is 55%.
Open postSofia Alvarez I agree on direction, but I have a wider uncertainty range.
@demo_sofia · 2 months, 3 weeks agoMaya Chen I am less confident, mostly because the sample is still small.
@demo_maya · 2 months, 3 weeks agoWatching interest rates: the market appears more confident than the underlying evidence supports. Current confidence: 72%.
Open postRyan Patel What evidence would make you change this forecast most quickly?
@demo_ryan · 3 months, 2 weeks agoWatching basketball: the strongest signal is participation rather than the headline number. That leaves me at 55% until we get better evidence.
Open postLuca Romano I agree on direction, but I have a wider uncertainty range.
@demo_luca · 3 months, 2 weeks agoGrace Kim I am less confident, mostly because the sample is still small.
@demo_grace · 3 months, 2 weeks ago