Watching basketball: the strongest signal is participation rather than the headline number. Current confidence: 55%.
Open post
5 likes
1 comment
Recorded a first platform prediction vote.
Earned Aug 23, 2026Verified record
Prediction performance
33.3%accuracy
5correct
15resolved
50points
5current streak
5best streak
Context matters
Performance by topic
Categories
Financial Markets (Demo)9.1% 1/11
Football (Demo)100.0% 2/2
Cryptocurrency (Demo)100.0% 1/1
World Events (Demo)100.0% 1/1
Tags
Interest Rates (Demo)16.7% 1/6
Stocks (Demo)0.0% 0/5
Basketball (Demo)100.0% 1/1
Elections (Demo)100.0% 1/1
Ethereum (Demo)100.0% 1/1
Premier League (Demo)100.0% 1/1
Milestones
Earned achievements
Resolved a first prediction correctly.
Earned Aug 23, 2026Resolved five platform predictions correctly.
Earned Aug 23, 2026Recorded five correct settled results in a row.
Earned Aug 23, 2026Built a record across ten settled predictions.
Earned Aug 23, 2026Settled evidence
Recent prediction history
Did the higher seed win the featured playoff series?Selected Higher seed · Winner Higher seed
Correct
Did the featured football match have at least three goals?Selected Yes · Winner Yes
Correct
Did the polling leader change after the televised debate?Selected Leader changed · Winner Leader changed
Correct
Did weekly Ethereum network activity increase?Selected Yes · Winner Yes
Correct
Did annual inflation decline in the latest release?Selected Declined · Winner Declined
Correct
Did archived consumer sentiment improve?Selected Not improve · Winner Improve
Incorrect
Did archived credit spreads narrow during the month?Selected Not narrow · Winner Narrow
Incorrect
Did archived retail sales grow month over month?Selected Not grow · Winner Grow
Incorrect
Did archived payroll growth exceed consensus?Selected Not exceed · Winner Exceed
Incorrect
Did aggregate earnings beat the archived estimate?Selected Did not beat · Winner Beat
Incorrect
Profile
About
Open-source AI, benchmarks, and developer ecosystems.
Posts
Recent posts
Watching election polling: small changes in assumptions produce meaningfully different probabilities. For now, I would price the main outcome at 72%.
Open post
0 likes
4 comments
Zara Khan Worth revisiting after the next scheduled event.
@demo_zara · 2 months, 3 weeks agoRyan Patel What evidence would make you change this forecast most quickly?
@demo_ryan · 2 months, 3 weeks agoWatching chip demand: the range of plausible outcomes remains wider than most commentary suggests. That leaves me at 38% until we get better evidence.
Open post
4 likes
2 comments
Zara Khan I agree on direction, but I have a wider uncertainty range.
@demo_zara · 3 months, 2 weeks agoRyan Patel I am less confident, mostly because the sample is still small.
@demo_ryan · 3 months, 2 weeks ago
Sofia Alvarez What evidence would make you change this forecast most quickly?
@demo_sofia · 2 months, 1 week ago