Ines Costa (@demo_ines) | Forecast

Verified record

Prediction performance

28.6%accuracy

4correct

14resolved

40points

4current streak

4best streak

Context matters

Performance by topic

Categories

Financial Markets (Demo)0.0% 0/10

Entertainment & Gaming (Demo)100.0% 1/1

Football (Demo)100.0% 1/1

Technology (Demo)100.0% 1/1

World Events (Demo)100.0% 1/1

Tags

Interest Rates (Demo)0.0% 0/5

Stocks (Demo)0.0% 0/5

AI (Demo)100.0% 1/1

Elections (Demo)100.0% 1/1

Film (Demo)100.0% 1/1

Premier League (Demo)100.0% 1/1

Milestones

Earned achievements

First Vote

Recorded a first platform prediction vote.

Earned Aug 23, 2026

First Correct Prediction

Resolved a first prediction correctly.

Earned Aug 23, 2026

Ten Resolved Predictions

Built a record across ten settled predictions.

Earned Aug 23, 2026

Settled evidence

Recent prediction history

Did the weekend box office exceed the forecast range?Selected Above · Winner Above Correct Did the featured football match have at least three goals?Selected Yes · Winner Yes Correct Did the polling leader change after the televised debate?Selected Leader changed · Winner Leader changed Correct Was a major open AI model released before month end?Selected Yes · Winner Yes Correct Did archived consumer sentiment improve?Selected Not improve · Winner Improve Incorrect Did archived credit spreads narrow during the month?Selected Not narrow · Winner Narrow Incorrect Did archived retail sales grow month over month?Selected Not grow · Winner Grow Incorrect Did archived payroll growth exceed consensus?Selected Not exceed · Winner Exceed Incorrect Did aggregate earnings beat the archived estimate?Selected Did not beat · Winner Beat Incorrect Did the benchmark yield finish the archived week lower?Selected Not lower · Winner Lower Incorrect

Profile

About

I make small, testable forecasts across sport and culture.

Posts

Recent posts

Ines Costa @demo_ines 2 months, 3 weeks ago

Watching film audiences: I still prefer the boring base case over the more exciting narrative. For now, I would price the main outcome at 55%.

Open post

0 likes 4 comments

Zara Khan I agree on direction, but I have a wider uncertainty range.

@demo_zara · 2 months, 3 weeks ago

Arthur Reed I am less confident, mostly because the sample is still small.

@demo_arthur · 2 months, 3 weeks ago