Verified record
Context matters
Milestones
Recorded a first platform prediction vote.
Earned Aug 23, 2026Resolved a first prediction correctly.
Earned Aug 23, 2026Resolved five platform predictions correctly.
Earned Aug 23, 2026Recorded five correct settled results in a row.
Earned Aug 23, 2026Built a record across ten settled predictions.
Earned Aug 23, 2026Reached at least 70% accuracy across ten settled votes in one category.
Earned Aug 23, 2026Settled evidence
Profile
Energy markets and the policy choices moving supply and demand.
Posts
Watching basketball: the strongest signal is participation rather than the headline number. My working probability is 55%.
Open postWatching AI adoption: one positive result would help, but it would not establish a durable trend. For now, I would price the main outcome at 55%.
Open postFinn Murphy Worth revisiting after the next scheduled event.
@demo_finn · 2 months agoHaruto Sato What evidence would make you change this forecast most quickly?
@demo_haruto · 2 months agoWatching football: the next scheduled release should resolve most of the current uncertainty. I am keeping the forecast near 38%.
Open postWatching interest rates: the market appears more confident than the underlying evidence supports. That leaves me at 72% until we get better evidence.
Open postOwen Brooks I agree on direction, but I have a wider uncertainty range.
@demo_owen · 2 months, 4 weeks agoPriya Shah I am less confident, mostly because the sample is still small.
@demo_priya · 2 months, 4 weeks agoWatching election polling: small changes in assumptions produce meaningfully different probabilities. Current confidence: 72%.
Open postLeila Haddad I am less confident, mostly because the sample is still small.
@demo_leila · 3 months ago
Ella Thompson Worth revisiting after the next scheduled event.
@demo_ella · 1 month, 3 weeks agoSofia Alvarez What evidence would make you change this forecast most quickly?
@demo_sofia · 1 month, 3 weeks ago