Verified record
Context matters
Milestones
Recorded a first platform prediction vote.
Earned Aug 23, 2026Resolved a first prediction correctly.
Earned Aug 23, 2026Resolved five platform predictions correctly.
Earned Aug 23, 2026Recorded five correct settled results in a row.
Earned Aug 23, 2026Built a record across ten settled predictions.
Earned Aug 23, 2026Reached at least 70% accuracy across ten settled votes in one category.
Earned Aug 23, 2026Settled evidence
Profile
Long-term investor focused on cash flows and base rates.
Posts
Watching clean energy: recent momentum is real, although the base rate still deserves respect. My working probability is 55%.
Open postWatching spaceflight: pricing and fundamentals are pointing in different directions for now. Current confidence: 72%.
Open postHaruto Sato What evidence would make you change this forecast most quickly?
@demo_haruto · 1 month, 3 weeks agoWatching basketball: the strongest signal is participation rather than the headline number. For now, I would price the main outcome at 55%.
Open postPriya Shah I agree on direction, but I have a wider uncertainty range.
@demo_priya · 2 months, 3 weeks agoAmina Yusuf I am less confident, mostly because the sample is still small.
@demo_amina · 2 months, 3 weeks agoWatching election polling: small changes in assumptions produce meaningfully different probabilities. That leaves me at 72% until we get better evidence.
Open postIvy Walker Worth revisiting after the next scheduled event.
@demo_ivy · 3 months, 1 week agoKofi Mensah What evidence would make you change this forecast most quickly?
@demo_kofi · 3 months, 1 week agoWatching chip demand: the range of plausible outcomes remains wider than most commentary suggests. I am keeping the forecast near 38%.
Open post
Owen Brooks I agree on direction, but I have a wider uncertainty range.
@demo_owen · 1 month, 3 weeks agoMaya Chen I am less confident, mostly because the sample is still small.
@demo_maya · 1 month, 3 weeks ago