Watching election polling: small changes in assumptions produce meaningfully different probabilities. My working probability is 72%.
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Watching election polling: small changes in assumptions produce meaningfully different probabilities. My working probability is 72%.
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Ryan Patel I agree on direction, but I have a wider uncertainty range.
@demo_ryan · 2 months agoFinn Murphy I am less confident, mostly because the sample is still small.
@demo_finn · 2 months ago