Verified record
Context matters
Milestones
Recorded a first platform prediction vote.
Earned Aug 23, 2026Resolved a first prediction correctly.
Earned Aug 23, 2026Resolved five platform predictions correctly.
Earned Aug 23, 2026Recorded five correct settled results in a row.
Earned Aug 23, 2026Built a record across ten settled predictions.
Earned Aug 23, 2026Reached at least 70% accuracy across ten settled votes in one category.
Earned Aug 23, 2026Settled evidence
Profile
Consumer technology, product launches, and adoption curves.
Posts
Watching clean energy: recent momentum is real, although the base rate still deserves respect. For now, I would price the main outcome at 55%.
Open postWatching election polling: small changes in assumptions produce meaningfully different probabilities. My working probability is 72%.
Open postRyan Patel I agree on direction, but I have a wider uncertainty range.
@demo_ryan · 2 months agoFinn Murphy I am less confident, mostly because the sample is still small.
@demo_finn · 2 months agoWatching spaceflight: pricing and fundamentals are pointing in different directions for now. That leaves me at 72% until we get better evidence.
Open postOwen Brooks I agree on direction, but I have a wider uncertainty range.
@demo_owen · 3 months, 2 weeks agoFinn Murphy I am less confident, mostly because the sample is still small.
@demo_finn · 3 months, 2 weeks agoWatching chip demand: the range of plausible outcomes remains wider than most commentary suggests. Current confidence: 38%.
Open postIvy Walker What evidence would make you change this forecast most quickly?
@demo_ivy · 3 months, 3 weeks ago
Noah Williams Worth revisiting after the next scheduled event.
@demo_noah · 1 month, 3 weeks agoArthur Reed What evidence would make you change this forecast most quickly?
@demo_arthur · 1 month, 3 weeks ago