Verified record
Context matters
Milestones
Recorded a first platform prediction vote.
Earned Aug 23, 2026Resolved a first prediction correctly.
Earned Aug 23, 2026Resolved five platform predictions correctly.
Earned Aug 23, 2026Built a record across ten settled predictions.
Earned Aug 23, 2026Recorded five correct settled results in a row.
Earned Aug 23, 2026Reached at least 70% accuracy across ten settled votes in one category.
Earned Aug 23, 2026Settled evidence
Profile
Gaming releases, player trends, and studio economics.
Posts
Watching clean energy: recent momentum is real, although the base rate still deserves respect. That leaves me at 55% until we get better evidence.
Open postWatching film audiences: I still prefer the boring base case over the more exciting narrative. Current confidence: 55%.
Open postIvy Walker What evidence would make you change this forecast most quickly?
@demo_ivy · 1 month, 4 weeks agoWatching public markets: my estimate moved slightly after today's update, not dramatically. My working probability is 38%.
Open postHaruto Sato I agree on direction, but I have a wider uncertainty range.
@demo_haruto · 2 months, 2 weeks agoZara Khan I am less confident, mostly because the sample is still small.
@demo_zara · 2 months, 2 weeks agoWatching chip demand: the range of plausible outcomes remains wider than most commentary suggests. For now, I would price the main outcome at 38%.
Open postKofi Mensah I agree on direction, but I have a wider uncertainty range.
@demo_kofi · 2 months, 2 weeks agoMateo Silva I am less confident, mostly because the sample is still small.
@demo_mateo · 2 months, 2 weeks agoWatching spaceflight: pricing and fundamentals are pointing in different directions for now. I am keeping the forecast near 72%.
Open post
Priya Shah Worth revisiting after the next scheduled event.
@demo_priya · 1 month, 3 weeks agoMaya Chen What evidence would make you change this forecast most quickly?
@demo_maya · 1 month, 3 weeks ago