Watching election polling: small changes in assumptions produce meaningfully different probabilities. For now, I would price the main outcome at 72%.
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Watching election polling: small changes in assumptions produce meaningfully different probabilities. For now, I would price the main outcome at 72%.
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Zara Khan Worth revisiting after the next scheduled event.
@demo_zara · 2 months, 3 weeks agoRyan Patel What evidence would make you change this forecast most quickly?
@demo_ryan · 2 months, 3 weeks ago