Forecast

Verified record

Prediction performance

20.0%accuracy
3correct
15resolved
30points
1current streak
1best streak

Context matters

Performance by topic

Categories

Financial Markets (Demo)0.0% 0/10
Football (Demo)50.0% 1/2
Entertainment & Gaming (Demo)100.0% 1/1
Technology (Demo)100.0% 1/1
World Events (Demo)0.0% 0/1

Tags

Interest Rates (Demo)0.0% 0/5
Stocks (Demo)0.0% 0/5
AI (Demo)100.0% 1/1
Basketball (Demo)0.0% 0/1
Elections (Demo)0.0% 0/1
Film (Demo)100.0% 1/1
Premier League (Demo)100.0% 1/1

Milestones

Earned achievements

First Vote

Recorded a first platform prediction vote.

Earned Aug 23, 2026
First Correct Prediction

Resolved a first prediction correctly.

Earned Aug 23, 2026
Ten Resolved Predictions

Built a record across ten settled predictions.

Earned Aug 23, 2026

Settled evidence

Recent prediction history

Did the weekend box office exceed the forecast range?Selected Above · Winner Above Correct Did the higher seed win the featured playoff series?Selected Lower seed · Winner Higher seed Incorrect Did the featured football match have at least three goals?Selected Yes · Winner Yes Correct Did the polling leader change after the televised debate?Selected Same leader · Winner Leader changed Incorrect Was a major open AI model released before month end?Selected Yes · Winner Yes Correct Did archived consumer sentiment improve?Selected Not improve · Winner Improve Incorrect Did archived credit spreads narrow during the month?Selected Not narrow · Winner Narrow Incorrect Did archived retail sales grow month over month?Selected Not grow · Winner Grow Incorrect Did archived payroll growth exceed consensus?Selected Not exceed · Winner Exceed Incorrect Did aggregate earnings beat the archived estimate?Selected Did not beat · Winner Beat Incorrect

Profile

About

Weather, climate records, and renewable generation.

Posts

Recent posts

Ivy Walker @demo_ivy

Watching AI adoption: one positive result would help, but it would not establish a durable trend. That leaves me at 55% until we get better evidence.

Open post

Mateo Silva Worth revisiting after the next scheduled event.

@demo_mateo · 1 month, 3 weeks ago

Ines Costa What evidence would make you change this forecast most quickly?

@demo_ines · 1 month, 3 weeks ago
Ivy Walker @demo_ivy

Watching interest rates: the market appears more confident than the underlying evidence supports. I am keeping the forecast near 72%.

Open post
Ivy Walker @demo_ivy

Watching football: the next scheduled release should resolve most of the current uncertainty. My working probability is 38%.

Open post

Leila Haddad I agree on direction, but I have a wider uncertainty range.

@demo_leila · 3 months, 1 week ago

Theo Martin I am less confident, mostly because the sample is still small.

@demo_theo · 3 months, 1 week ago