Verified record
Context matters
Milestones
Recorded a first platform prediction vote.
Earned Aug 23, 2026Resolved a first prediction correctly.
Earned Aug 23, 2026Resolved five platform predictions correctly.
Earned Aug 23, 2026Recorded five correct settled results in a row.
Earned Aug 23, 2026Built a record across ten settled predictions.
Earned Aug 23, 2026Reached at least 70% accuracy across ten settled votes in one category.
Earned Aug 23, 2026Settled evidence
Profile
Commodities, currencies, and cross-market signals.
Posts
Watching film audiences: I still prefer the boring base case over the more exciting narrative. My working probability is 55%.
Open postWatching Bitcoin: the latest move matters less than the next confirmed data point. For now, I would price the main outcome at 38%.
Open postSofia Alvarez I agree on direction, but I have a wider uncertainty range.
@demo_sofia · 2 months agoNoah Williams I am less confident, mostly because the sample is still small.
@demo_noah · 2 months agoWatching public markets: my estimate moved slightly after today's update, not dramatically. I am keeping the forecast near 38%.
Open postWatching game releases: I am watching whether this week's trend survives a tougher comparison. Current confidence: 72%.
Open postTheo Martin I am less confident, mostly because the sample is still small.
@demo_theo · 3 months, 3 weeks ago
Luca Romano Worth revisiting after the next scheduled event.
@demo_luca · 1 month, 3 weeks agoGrace Kim What evidence would make you change this forecast most quickly?
@demo_grace · 1 month, 3 weeks ago