Watching Bitcoin: the latest move matters less than the next confirmed data point. My working probability is 38%.
Open post
18 likes
3 comments
Recorded a first platform prediction vote.
Earned Aug 23, 2026Verified record
Prediction performance
92.9%accuracy
13correct
14resolved
130points
2current streak
11best streak
Context matters
Performance by topic
Categories
Financial Markets (Demo)100.0% 11/11
Cryptocurrency (Demo)100.0% 1/1
Football (Demo)100.0% 1/1
World Events (Demo)0.0% 0/1
Tags
Stocks (Demo)100.0% 6/6
Interest Rates (Demo)100.0% 5/5
Elections (Demo)0.0% 0/1
Ethereum (Demo)100.0% 1/1
Premier League (Demo)100.0% 1/1
Milestones
Earned achievements
Resolved a first prediction correctly.
Earned Aug 23, 2026Resolved five platform predictions correctly.
Earned Aug 23, 2026Recorded five correct settled results in a row.
Earned Aug 23, 2026Built a record across ten settled predictions.
Earned Aug 23, 2026Reached at least 70% accuracy across ten settled votes in one category.
Earned Aug 23, 2026Settled evidence
Recent prediction history
Did the featured company beat consensus earnings?Selected Met · Winner Met
Correct
Did the featured football match have at least three goals?Selected Yes · Winner Yes
Correct
Did the polling leader change after the televised debate?Selected Same leader · Winner Leader changed
Incorrect
Did weekly Ethereum network activity increase?Selected Yes · Winner Yes
Correct
Did archived consumer sentiment improve?Selected Improve · Winner Improve
Correct
Did archived credit spreads narrow during the month?Selected Narrow · Winner Narrow
Correct
Did archived retail sales grow month over month?Selected Grow · Winner Grow
Correct
Did archived payroll growth exceed consensus?Selected Exceed · Winner Exceed
Correct
Did aggregate earnings beat the archived estimate?Selected Beat · Winner Beat
Correct
Did the benchmark yield finish the archived week lower?Selected Lower · Winner Lower
Correct
Profile
About
Elections and geopolitics, with uncertainty stated clearly.
Posts
Recent posts
Watching film audiences: I still prefer the boring base case over the more exciting narrative. That leaves me at 55% until we get better evidence.
Open post
1 like
2 comments
Maya Chen I agree on direction, but I have a wider uncertainty range.
@demo_maya · 2 months, 1 week agoArthur Reed I am less confident, mostly because the sample is still small.
@demo_arthur · 2 months, 1 week agoWatching game releases: I am watching whether this week's trend survives a tougher comparison. I am keeping the forecast near 72%.
Open post
8 likes
0 comments
Watching public markets: my estimate moved slightly after today's update, not dramatically. For now, I would price the main outcome at 38%.
Open post
0 likes
4 comments
Clara Jensen Worth revisiting after the next scheduled event.
@demo_clara · 3 months, 3 weeks agoSam Okafor What evidence would make you change this forecast most quickly?
@demo_sam · 3 months, 3 weeks ago
Maya Chen Worth revisiting after the next scheduled event.
@demo_maya · 1 month, 4 weeks agoSam Okafor What evidence would make you change this forecast most quickly?
@demo_sam · 1 month, 4 weeks ago