Verified record
Context matters
Milestones
Recorded a first platform prediction vote.
Earned Aug 23, 2026Resolved a first prediction correctly.
Earned Aug 23, 2026Resolved five platform predictions correctly.
Earned Aug 23, 2026Recorded five correct settled results in a row.
Earned Aug 23, 2026Built a record across ten settled predictions.
Earned Aug 23, 2026Reached at least 70% accuracy across ten settled votes in one category.
Earned Aug 23, 2026Settled evidence
Profile
Polling, turnout, and public policy with calibrated confidence.
Posts
Watching election polling: small changes in assumptions produce meaningfully different probabilities. My working probability is 72%.
Open postWatching clean energy: recent momentum is real, although the base rate still deserves respect. For now, I would price the main outcome at 55%.
Open postZara Khan Worth revisiting after the next scheduled event.
@demo_zara · 2 months agoOwen Brooks What evidence would make you change this forecast most quickly?
@demo_owen · 2 months agoWatching game releases: I am watching whether this week's trend survives a tougher comparison. Current confidence: 72%.
Open postLeila Haddad I am less confident, mostly because the sample is still small.
@demo_leila · 2 months, 2 weeks agoWatching public markets: my estimate moved slightly after today's update, not dramatically. I am keeping the forecast near 38%.
Open postWatching film audiences: I still prefer the boring base case over the more exciting narrative. My working probability is 55%.
Open postElla Thompson Worth revisiting after the next scheduled event.
@demo_ella · 3 months, 2 weeks agoArthur Reed What evidence would make you change this forecast most quickly?
@demo_arthur · 3 months, 2 weeks agoWatching spaceflight: pricing and fundamentals are pointing in different directions for now. That leaves me at 72% until we get better evidence.
Open postGrace Kim I agree on direction, but I have a wider uncertainty range.
@demo_grace · 3 months, 2 weeks agoMateo Silva I am less confident, mostly because the sample is still small.
@demo_mateo · 3 months, 2 weeks agoWatching chip demand: the range of plausible outcomes remains wider than most commentary suggests. Current confidence: 38%.
Open postNoah Williams What evidence would make you change this forecast most quickly?
@demo_noah · 4 months ago
Clara Jensen I agree on direction, but I have a wider uncertainty range.
@demo_clara · 1 month, 3 weeks agoNia Johnson I am less confident, mostly because the sample is still small.
@demo_nia · 1 month, 3 weeks ago