Verified record
Context matters
Milestones
Recorded a first platform prediction vote.
Earned Aug 23, 2026Resolved a first prediction correctly.
Earned Aug 23, 2026Resolved five platform predictions correctly.
Earned Aug 23, 2026Recorded five correct settled results in a row.
Earned Aug 23, 2026Built a record across ten settled predictions.
Earned Aug 23, 2026Reached at least 70% accuracy across ten settled votes in one category.
Earned Aug 23, 2026Settled evidence
Profile
Macro forecaster tracking rates, inflation, and risk appetite.
Posts
Watching basketball: the strongest signal is participation rather than the headline number. That leaves me at 55% until we get better evidence.
Open postWatching clean energy: recent momentum is real, although the base rate still deserves respect. Current confidence: 55%.
Open postKofi Mensah I am less confident, mostly because the sample is still small.
@demo_kofi · 2 months agoSubscriber edition
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View access detailsWatching spaceflight: pricing and fundamentals are pointing in different directions for now. For now, I would price the main outcome at 72%.
Open postZara Khan I agree on direction, but I have a wider uncertainty range.
@demo_zara · 2 months, 1 week agoIvy Walker I am less confident, mostly because the sample is still small.
@demo_ivy · 2 months, 1 week agoWatching election polling: small changes in assumptions produce meaningfully different probabilities. I am keeping the forecast near 72%.
Open postWatching football: the next scheduled release should resolve most of the current uncertainty. For now, I would price the main outcome at 38%.
Open postRyan Patel Worth revisiting after the next scheduled event.
@demo_ryan · 2 months, 3 weeks agoNia Johnson What evidence would make you change this forecast most quickly?
@demo_nia · 2 months, 3 weeks agoWatching chip demand: the range of plausible outcomes remains wider than most commentary suggests. My working probability is 38%.
Open postArthur Reed Worth revisiting after the next scheduled event.
@demo_arthur · 2 months, 4 weeks agoSam Okafor What evidence would make you change this forecast most quickly?
@demo_sam · 2 months, 3 weeks agoWatching interest rates: the market appears more confident than the underlying evidence supports. Current confidence: 72%.
Open postNoah Williams What evidence would make you change this forecast most quickly?
@demo_noah · 3 months, 3 weeks ago
Ryan Patel I agree on direction, but I have a wider uncertainty range.
@demo_ryan · 1 month, 3 weeks agoKofi Mensah I am less confident, mostly because the sample is still small.
@demo_kofi · 1 month, 3 weeks ago