Verified record
Context matters
Milestones
Recorded a first platform prediction vote.
Earned Aug 23, 2026Resolved a first prediction correctly.
Earned Aug 23, 2026Resolved five platform predictions correctly.
Earned Aug 23, 2026Recorded five correct settled results in a row.
Earned Aug 23, 2026Built a record across ten settled predictions.
Earned Aug 23, 2026Reached at least 70% accuracy across ten settled votes in one category.
Earned Aug 23, 2026Settled evidence
Profile
Film, streaming, and audience trends without the hype.
Posts
Watching AI adoption: one positive result would help, but it would not establish a durable trend. That leaves me at 55% until we get better evidence.
Open postWatching chip demand: the range of plausible outcomes remains wider than most commentary suggests. That leaves me at 38% until we get better evidence.
Open postPriya Shah I agree on direction, but I have a wider uncertainty range.
@demo_priya · 2 months, 1 week agoGrace Kim I am less confident, mostly because the sample is still small.
@demo_grace · 2 months, 1 week agoWatching interest rates: the market appears more confident than the underlying evidence supports. I am keeping the forecast near 72%.
Open postWatching basketball: the strongest signal is participation rather than the headline number. Current confidence: 55%.
Open postAmina Yusuf What evidence would make you change this forecast most quickly?
@demo_amina · 3 months agoWatching football: the next scheduled release should resolve most of the current uncertainty. My working probability is 38%.
Open postArthur Reed I agree on direction, but I have a wider uncertainty range.
@demo_arthur · 3 months, 2 weeks agoFinn Murphy I am less confident, mostly because the sample is still small.
@demo_finn · 3 months, 2 weeks agoWatching election polling: small changes in assumptions produce meaningfully different probabilities. For now, I would price the main outcome at 72%.
Open postSam Okafor Worth revisiting after the next scheduled event.
@demo_sam · 4 months agoKofi Mensah What evidence would make you change this forecast most quickly?
@demo_kofi · 4 months agoWatching Bitcoin: the latest move matters less than the next confirmed data point. For now, I would price the main outcome at 38%.
Open postKofi Mensah I agree on direction, but I have a wider uncertainty range.
@demo_kofi · 4 months agoNoah Williams I am less confident, mostly because the sample is still small.
@demo_noah · 4 months ago
Finn Murphy Worth revisiting after the next scheduled event.
@demo_finn · 1 month, 3 weeks agoPriya Shah What evidence would make you change this forecast most quickly?
@demo_priya · 1 month, 3 weeks ago