Watching clean energy: recent momentum is real, although the base rate still deserves respect. Current confidence: 55%.
Open post
1 like
1 comment
Recorded a first platform prediction vote.
Earned Aug 23, 2026Verified record
Prediction performance
100.0%accuracy
14correct
14resolved
140points
14current streak
14best streak
Context matters
Performance by topic
Categories
Financial Markets (Demo)100.0% 10/10
Football (Demo)100.0% 2/2
Entertainment & Gaming (Demo)100.0% 1/1
World Events (Demo)100.0% 1/1
Tags
Interest Rates (Demo)100.0% 5/5
Stocks (Demo)100.0% 5/5
Basketball (Demo)100.0% 1/1
Elections (Demo)100.0% 1/1
Film (Demo)100.0% 1/1
Premier League (Demo)100.0% 1/1
Milestones
Earned achievements
Resolved a first prediction correctly.
Earned Aug 23, 2026Resolved five platform predictions correctly.
Earned Aug 23, 2026Recorded five correct settled results in a row.
Earned Aug 23, 2026Built a record across ten settled predictions.
Earned Aug 23, 2026Reached at least 70% accuracy across ten settled votes in one category.
Earned Aug 23, 2026Settled evidence
Recent prediction history
Did the weekend box office exceed the forecast range?Selected Above · Winner Above
Correct
Did the higher seed win the featured playoff series?Selected Higher seed · Winner Higher seed
Correct
Did the featured football match have at least three goals?Selected Yes · Winner Yes
Correct
Did the polling leader change after the televised debate?Selected Leader changed · Winner Leader changed
Correct
Did archived consumer sentiment improve?Selected Improve · Winner Improve
Correct
Did archived credit spreads narrow during the month?Selected Narrow · Winner Narrow
Correct
Did archived retail sales grow month over month?Selected Grow · Winner Grow
Correct
Did archived payroll growth exceed consensus?Selected Exceed · Winner Exceed
Correct
Did aggregate earnings beat the archived estimate?Selected Beat · Winner Beat
Correct
Did the benchmark yield finish the archived week lower?Selected Lower · Winner Lower
Correct
Profile
About
Spaceflight schedules, launch cadence, and engineering milestones.
Posts
Recent posts
Watching film audiences: I still prefer the boring base case over the more exciting narrative. I am keeping the forecast near 55%.
Open post
8 likes
0 comments
Watching spaceflight: pricing and fundamentals are pointing in different directions for now. For now, I would price the main outcome at 72%.
Open post
5 likes
4 comments
Noah Williams I agree on direction, but I have a wider uncertainty range.
@demo_noah · 2 months, 1 week agoNia Johnson I am less confident, mostly because the sample is still small.
@demo_nia · 2 months, 1 week agoWatching Bitcoin: the latest move matters less than the next confirmed data point. Current confidence: 38%.
Open post
18 likes
1 comment
Luca Romano What evidence would make you change this forecast most quickly?
@demo_luca · 2 months, 3 weeks agoWatching public markets: my estimate moved slightly after today's update, not dramatically. That leaves me at 38% until we get better evidence.
Open post
2 likes
2 comments
Ines Costa Worth revisiting after the next scheduled event.
@demo_ines · 3 months agoElla Thompson What evidence would make you change this forecast most quickly?
@demo_ella · 3 months agoWatching game releases: I am watching whether this week's trend survives a tougher comparison. My working probability is 72%.
Open post
3 likes
3 comments
Ryan Patel I agree on direction, but I have a wider uncertainty range.
@demo_ryan · 3 months, 2 weeks agoZara Khan I am less confident, mostly because the sample is still small.
@demo_zara · 3 months, 2 weeks ago
Noah Williams I am less confident, mostly because the sample is still small.
@demo_noah · 1 month, 3 weeks ago