Verified record
Context matters
Milestones
Recorded a first platform prediction vote.
Earned Aug 23, 2026Resolved a first prediction correctly.
Earned Aug 23, 2026Resolved five platform predictions correctly.
Earned Aug 23, 2026Recorded five correct settled results in a row.
Earned Aug 23, 2026Built a record across ten settled predictions.
Earned Aug 23, 2026Reached at least 70% accuracy across ten settled votes in one category.
Earned Aug 23, 2026Settled evidence
Profile
I follow AI adoption, chips, and the business of software.
Posts
Watching spaceflight: pricing and fundamentals are pointing in different directions for now. I am keeping the forecast near 72%.
Open postWatching AI adoption: one positive result would help, but it would not establish a durable trend. I am keeping the forecast near 55%.
Open postWatching film audiences: I still prefer the boring base case over the more exciting narrative. Current confidence: 55%.
Open postLeila Haddad What evidence would make you change this forecast most quickly?
@demo_leila · 1 month, 4 weeks agoWatching game releases: I am watching whether this week's trend survives a tougher comparison. For now, I would price the main outcome at 72%.
Open postLuca Romano Worth revisiting after the next scheduled event.
@demo_luca · 2 months agoHaruto Sato What evidence would make you change this forecast most quickly?
@demo_haruto · 2 months agoWatching public markets: my estimate moved slightly after today's update, not dramatically. My working probability is 38%.
Open postRyan Patel I agree on direction, but I have a wider uncertainty range.
@demo_ryan · 2 months, 3 weeks agoLuca Romano I am less confident, mostly because the sample is still small.
@demo_luca · 2 months, 3 weeks agoWatching Bitcoin: the latest move matters less than the next confirmed data point. That leaves me at 38% until we get better evidence.
Open postRyan Patel I agree on direction, but I have a wider uncertainty range.
@demo_ryan · 3 months, 1 week agoInes Costa I am less confident, mostly because the sample is still small.
@demo_ines · 3 months, 1 week agoSubscriber edition
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