Verified record
Context matters
Milestones
Recorded a first platform prediction vote.
Earned Aug 23, 2026Resolved a first prediction correctly.
Earned Aug 23, 2026Resolved five platform predictions correctly.
Earned Aug 23, 2026Recorded five correct settled results in a row.
Earned Aug 23, 2026Built a record across ten settled predictions.
Earned Aug 23, 2026Reached at least 70% accuracy across ten settled votes in one category.
Earned Aug 23, 2026Settled evidence
Profile
Basketball forecasts built from rotations and recent form.
Posts
Watching clean energy: recent momentum is real, although the base rate still deserves respect. I am keeping the forecast near 55%.
Open postWatching public markets: my estimate moved slightly after today's update, not dramatically. Current confidence: 38%.
Open postFinn Murphy I am less confident, mostly because the sample is still small.
@demo_finn · 2 months, 1 week agoWatching film audiences: I still prefer the boring base case over the more exciting narrative. For now, I would price the main outcome at 55%.
Open postEmil Novak I agree on direction, but I have a wider uncertainty range.
@demo_emil · 2 months, 2 weeks agoMaya Chen I am less confident, mostly because the sample is still small.
@demo_maya · 2 months, 2 weeks agoWatching Bitcoin: the latest move matters less than the next confirmed data point. I am keeping the forecast near 38%.
Open postWatching game releases: I am watching whether this week's trend survives a tougher comparison. That leaves me at 72% until we get better evidence.
Open postEmil Novak Worth revisiting after the next scheduled event.
@demo_emil · 3 months, 1 week agoSofia Alvarez What evidence would make you change this forecast most quickly?
@demo_sofia · 3 months, 1 week agoWatching spaceflight: pricing and fundamentals are pointing in different directions for now. My working probability is 72%.
Open postArthur Reed Worth revisiting after the next scheduled event.
@demo_arthur · 3 months, 2 weeks agoClara Jensen What evidence would make you change this forecast most quickly?
@demo_clara · 3 months, 2 weeks ago