Verified record
Context matters
Milestones
Recorded a first platform prediction vote.
Earned Aug 23, 2026Resolved a first prediction correctly.
Earned Aug 23, 2026Resolved five platform predictions correctly.
Earned Aug 23, 2026Recorded five correct settled results in a row.
Earned Aug 23, 2026Built a record across ten settled predictions.
Earned Aug 23, 2026Reached at least 70% accuracy across ten settled votes in one category.
Earned Aug 23, 2026Settled evidence
Profile
Bitcoin market structure and digital asset regulation.
Posts
Watching clean energy: recent momentum is real, although the base rate still deserves respect. My working probability is 55%.
Open postWatching public markets: my estimate moved slightly after today's update, not dramatically. For now, I would price the main outcome at 38%.
Open postRyan Patel Worth revisiting after the next scheduled event.
@demo_ryan · 1 month, 3 weeks agoGrace Kim What evidence would make you change this forecast most quickly?
@demo_grace · 1 month, 3 weeks agoWatching interest rates: the market appears more confident than the underlying evidence supports. My working probability is 72%.
Open postInes Costa Worth revisiting after the next scheduled event.
@demo_ines · 2 months, 1 week agoMaya Chen What evidence would make you change this forecast most quickly?
@demo_maya · 2 months, 1 week agoWatching spaceflight: pricing and fundamentals are pointing in different directions for now. Current confidence: 72%.
Open postArthur Reed What evidence would make you change this forecast most quickly?
@demo_arthur · 2 months, 4 weeks agoWatching basketball: the strongest signal is participation rather than the headline number. For now, I would price the main outcome at 55%.
Open postElla Thompson I agree on direction, but I have a wider uncertainty range.
@demo_ella · 2 months, 4 weeks agoHaruto Sato I am less confident, mostly because the sample is still small.
@demo_haruto · 2 months, 4 weeks agoWatching election polling: small changes in assumptions produce meaningfully different probabilities. That leaves me at 72% until we get better evidence.
Open postPriya Shah Worth revisiting after the next scheduled event.
@demo_priya · 3 months agoKofi Mensah What evidence would make you change this forecast most quickly?
@demo_kofi · 3 months agoWatching chip demand: the range of plausible outcomes remains wider than most commentary suggests. I am keeping the forecast near 38%.
Open post
Emil Novak I agree on direction, but I have a wider uncertainty range.
@demo_emil · 1 month, 3 weeks agoPriya Shah I am less confident, mostly because the sample is still small.
@demo_priya · 1 month, 3 weeks ago