Verified record
Context matters
Milestones
Recorded a first platform prediction vote.
Earned Aug 23, 2026Resolved a first prediction correctly.
Earned Aug 23, 2026Resolved five platform predictions correctly.
Earned Aug 23, 2026Built a record across ten settled predictions.
Earned Aug 23, 2026Recorded five correct settled results in a row.
Earned Aug 23, 2026Reached at least 70% accuracy across ten settled votes in one category.
Earned Aug 23, 2026Settled evidence
Profile
Science news and careful forecasts about what happens next.
Posts
Watching game releases: I am watching whether this week's trend survives a tougher comparison. For now, I would price the main outcome at 72%.
Open postWatching interest rates: the market appears more confident than the underlying evidence supports. My working probability is 72%.
Open postLuca Romano Worth revisiting after the next scheduled event.
@demo_luca · 2 months, 3 weeks agoOwen Brooks What evidence would make you change this forecast most quickly?
@demo_owen · 2 months, 3 weeks agoWatching Bitcoin: the latest move matters less than the next confirmed data point. That leaves me at 38% until we get better evidence.
Open postKofi Mensah I agree on direction, but I have a wider uncertainty range.
@demo_kofi · 2 months, 3 weeks agoPriya Shah I am less confident, mostly because the sample is still small.
@demo_priya · 2 months, 3 weeks agoWatching AI adoption: one positive result would help, but it would not establish a durable trend. I am keeping the forecast near 55%.
Open postWatching football: the next scheduled release should resolve most of the current uncertainty. Current confidence: 38%.
Open postTheo Martin I am less confident, mostly because the sample is still small.
@demo_theo · 3 months, 3 weeks ago
Grace Kim Worth revisiting after the next scheduled event.
@demo_grace · 1 month, 2 weeks agoOwen Brooks What evidence would make you change this forecast most quickly?
@demo_owen · 1 month, 2 weeks ago