Verified record
Context matters
Milestones
Recorded a first platform prediction vote.
Earned Aug 23, 2026Resolved a first prediction correctly.
Earned Aug 23, 2026Resolved five platform predictions correctly.
Earned Aug 23, 2026Recorded five correct settled results in a row.
Earned Aug 23, 2026Built a record across ten settled predictions.
Earned Aug 23, 2026Reached at least 70% accuracy across ten settled votes in one category.
Earned Aug 23, 2026Settled evidence
Profile
Football probabilities, fixture congestion, and tournament form.
Posts
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View access detailsWatching Bitcoin: the latest move matters less than the next confirmed data point. Current confidence: 38%.
Open postWatching AI adoption: one positive result would help, but it would not establish a durable trend. For now, I would price the main outcome at 55%.
Open postZara Khan Worth revisiting after the next scheduled event.
@demo_zara · 2 months, 2 weeks agoRyan Patel What evidence would make you change this forecast most quickly?
@demo_ryan · 2 months, 2 weeks agoWatching interest rates: the market appears more confident than the underlying evidence supports. That leaves me at 72% until we get better evidence.
Open postArthur Reed I agree on direction, but I have a wider uncertainty range.
@demo_arthur · 2 months, 3 weeks agoClara Jensen I am less confident, mostly because the sample is still small.
@demo_clara · 2 months, 3 weeks agoWatching football: the next scheduled release should resolve most of the current uncertainty. I am keeping the forecast near 38%.
Open postWatching game releases: I am watching whether this week's trend survives a tougher comparison. My working probability is 72%.
Open postPriya Shah I agree on direction, but I have a wider uncertainty range.
@demo_priya · 3 months agoRyan Patel I am less confident, mostly because the sample is still small.
@demo_ryan · 3 months agoWatching basketball: the strongest signal is participation rather than the headline number. My working probability is 55%.
Open postMaya Chen Worth revisiting after the next scheduled event.
@demo_maya · 3 months, 1 week agoFinn Murphy What evidence would make you change this forecast most quickly?
@demo_finn · 3 months, 1 week agoSubscriber edition
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Ella Thompson What evidence would make you change this forecast most quickly?
@demo_ella · 2 months, 1 week ago