Watching Bitcoin: the latest move matters less than the next confirmed data point. My working probability is 38%.
Open post
18 likes
3 comments
Recorded a first platform prediction vote.
Earned Aug 23, 2026Verified record
Prediction performance
92.3%accuracy
12correct
13resolved
120points
2current streak
10best streak
Context matters
Performance by topic
Categories
Financial Markets (Demo)100.0% 10/10
Climate & Science (Demo)100.0% 1/1
Cryptocurrency (Demo)0.0% 0/1
Football (Demo)100.0% 1/1
Tags
Interest Rates (Demo)100.0% 5/5
Stocks (Demo)100.0% 5/5
Climate Tech (Demo)100.0% 1/1
Ethereum (Demo)0.0% 0/1
Premier League (Demo)100.0% 1/1
Milestones
Earned achievements
Resolved a first prediction correctly.
Earned Aug 23, 2026Resolved five platform predictions correctly.
Earned Aug 23, 2026Recorded five correct settled results in a row.
Earned Aug 23, 2026Built a record across ten settled predictions.
Earned Aug 23, 2026Reached at least 70% accuracy across ten settled votes in one category.
Earned Aug 23, 2026Settled evidence
Recent prediction history
Did the latest month set a new temperature record?Selected Yes · Winner Yes
Correct
Did the featured football match have at least three goals?Selected Yes · Winner Yes
Correct
Did weekly Ethereum network activity increase?Selected No · Winner Yes
Incorrect
Did archived consumer sentiment improve?Selected Improve · Winner Improve
Correct
Did archived credit spreads narrow during the month?Selected Narrow · Winner Narrow
Correct
Did archived retail sales grow month over month?Selected Grow · Winner Grow
Correct
Did archived payroll growth exceed consensus?Selected Exceed · Winner Exceed
Correct
Did aggregate earnings beat the archived estimate?Selected Beat · Winner Beat
Correct
Did the benchmark yield finish the archived week lower?Selected Lower · Winner Lower
Correct
Did market volatility close below its archived monthly open?Selected Below · Winner Below
Correct
Profile
About
Climate policy, clean energy, and measurable transition data.
Posts
Recent posts
Watching film audiences: I still prefer the boring base case over the more exciting narrative. That leaves me at 55% until we get better evidence.
Open post
3 likes
2 comments
Arthur Reed I agree on direction, but I have a wider uncertainty range.
@demo_arthur · 1 month, 3 weeks agoNia Johnson I am less confident, mostly because the sample is still small.
@demo_nia · 1 month, 3 weeks agoWatching AI adoption: one positive result would help, but it would not establish a durable trend. Current confidence: 55%.
Open post
3 likes
1 comment
Ryan Patel I am less confident, mostly because the sample is still small.
@demo_ryan · 1 month, 3 weeks agoWatching football: the next scheduled release should resolve most of the current uncertainty. That leaves me at 38% until we get better evidence.
Open post
0 likes
2 comments
Leila Haddad Worth revisiting after the next scheduled event.
@demo_leila · 1 month, 4 weeks agoSofia Alvarez What evidence would make you change this forecast most quickly?
@demo_sofia · 1 month, 4 weeks agoWatching basketball: the strongest signal is participation rather than the headline number. I am keeping the forecast near 55%.
Open post
8 likes
0 comments
Watching interest rates: the market appears more confident than the underlying evidence supports. For now, I would price the main outcome at 72%.
Open post
3 likes
4 comments
Priya Shah I agree on direction, but I have a wider uncertainty range.
@demo_priya · 3 months agoEmil Novak I am less confident, mostly because the sample is still small.
@demo_emil · 3 months agoWatching game releases: I am watching whether this week's trend survives a tougher comparison. I am keeping the forecast near 72%.
Open post
8 likes
0 comments
Mateo Silva Worth revisiting after the next scheduled event.
@demo_mateo · 1 month, 2 weeks agoSam Okafor What evidence would make you change this forecast most quickly?
@demo_sam · 1 month, 2 weeks ago